It was good information and reassuring. There is light at the end of the tunnel - but that light isn't going to really start shining till the end of 2012/2013. That's when the foreclosures and short sales that have flooded the market will be mostly absorbed.
Here's what he said is in store for 2011:
- Seller Activity will be up 3.5%
- Buyer Activity will be up 6.4%
- Prices will climb 3%
- Supply & Demand will trend down
- Interest Rates will trend up
- Housing Affordability will trend down
- New Construction starts will trend up
- We'll see an upward price migration - meaning move-up buyers will re-enter the market
Here's what happened in our local market last week:
For the week ending February 12, there were 710 signed purchase agreements, a meager drop of 0.1 percent from the same week last year. Although we fully expect to be down in year-over-year comparisons for the next three months due to last year's tax credit incentive, this is still interesting because it marks the first time we've had more than 700 Pending Sales since May 2010. Think about that. More sales activity in mid-February 2011 than mid-June 2010.
Similar to the week prior, there were 1,324 New Listings for the week, representing a decline of 24.9 percent from a year ago. Active Listings increased slightly from the week before to 21,553, just a 3.2 percent decline from last year.
As we work our way through these next three months of apples-to-oranges comparisons to last year, we will be looking back at 2009 and 2008 for further market understanding. This week's 710 Pending Sales compare well to the 714 for the same week in 2009 and 635 in 2008.
How much of this week's reported pendings can be attributed to unseasonably warm weather? Looking at 15-plus inches of fresh snowfall today, we're certain to find out in a couple of weeks.
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